The Question That Changed Everything
A few months ago, my daughter Charlie (5 years old) asked me a simple question:
"Daddy, how do you know if an idea is good?"
This question struck me. After 15 years in product management and 100+ products launched, I realized that 90% of founders have no framework for validating their ideas.
Result? They spend 3 months building, invest $50K+, and discover too late that the market doesn't exist, competition is too fierce, or their MVP is 10x too complex.
The /40 Framework: 4 Pillars, 10 Points Each
Here's the framework I've used for years to score ideas. Simple, actionable, and takes 15 minutes max.
1. Business Potential (TAM/SAM/SOM) - /10
- TAM (Total Addressable Market): Total market size. Ex: "Global B2B SaaS market = $200B"
- SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): Your realistic share of TAM. Ex: "US SMBs 10-50 employees = $4.2B"
- SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): What you can REALLY capture in Year 1-3. Ex: "1% of SAM = $42M"
Score 8-10/10: TAM $10B+, SAM $1B+, realistic SOM >$10M Year 3
Score 5-7/10: Medium market ($500M-$5B), viable niche
Score 0-4/10: Market too small (<$100M), too saturated, or non-existent
2. Technical Feasibility - /10
Key Questions:
- Can you build an MVP in 3-6 months with 1-2 devs?
- Are the technologies mature (React, Node, PostgreSQL...) or risky (unproven blockchain, bleeding-edge AI)?
- Realistic budget: $20K-$100K for MVP?
- Are there reliable 3rd party APIs (Stripe, Twilio, OpenAI) or do you need to build from scratch?
Score 8-10/10: MVP in 3 months, standard stack, <$50K, APIs available
Score 5-7/10: MVP in 6 months, some tech risks, $50K-$100K
Score 0-4/10: Extreme complexity, >12 months, >$200K, unproven tech
3. Competitive Landscape - /10
3-Level Analysis:
- Direct competitors: Who does exactly the same thing? (ex: Notion vs Coda)
- Indirect competitors: Alternative solutions (ex: Notion vs Google Docs + Airtable)
- Angle of attack: What's your REAL differentiation? (not "better UX" or "AI-powered" - everyone says that)
Red flags 🚩
- 3+ competitors with $100M+ funding (you're too late)
- Market dominated by 1 player with >70% market share (network effects too strong)
- Your angle is "we do the same but better" (not real differentiation)
Score 8-10/10: Open market, weak competitors, clear angle
Score 5-7/10: 2-3 medium competitors, OK differentiation
Score 0-4/10: Saturated market, no differentiation, price war
4. Go-to-Market (GTM Strategy) - /10
Can you REALLY acquire users?
- CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): How much does 1 customer cost? (Google Ads, content, sales...)
- LTV (Lifetime Value): How much does 1 customer bring over 12-36 months?
- LTV/CAC Ratio: Must be >3:1 minimum (ideal 5:1+)
- Channels: SEO, Ads, Product-Led Growth, Outbound Sales... which work for your ICP?
Concrete example:
B2B SaaS at $49/month
- LTV = $49 × 24 months (retention) = $1,176
- CAC = $200 (Google Ads + content + onboarding)
- LTV/CAC Ratio = 5.8:1 ✅ Excellent
Score 8-10/10: LTV/CAC >5:1, clear channels, payback <6 months
Score 5-7/10: LTV/CAC 3-5:1, channels to test
Score 0-4/10: LTV/CAC <3:1, no obvious channels, payback >12 months
Real Cases: Scoring 3 Ideas
Idea A: Automation SaaS for SMBs - Score 38/40 ✅
- Business: 10/10 - TAM $50B, SAM $4.2B, SOM $50M realistic
- Technical: 9/10 - MVP 3 months, React/Node stack, $40K
- Competition: 9/10 - 2 weak competitors, "no-code for non-tech" angle
- GTM: 10/10 - LTV/CAC 6:1, SEO + Product-Led Growth
Idea B: Crypto Portfolio Tracker - Score 26/40 ⚠️
- Business: 7/10 - TAM $8B but volatile, niche
- Technical: 6/10 - MVP 6 months, unstable crypto APIs
- Competition: 5/10 - 10+ competitors (CoinGecko, CMC...), hard to differentiate
- GTM: 8/10 - Crypto Twitter + Reddit, low CAC but uncertain LTV
Idea C: "Uber for Dog Walkers" - Score 18/40 ❌
- Business: 4/10 - Local/geo-dependent market, hard to scale
- Technical: 7/10 - OK MVP but 2-sided marketplace complexity
- Competition: 3/10 - Rover, Wag dominant, price war
- GTM: 4/10 - High CAC (local ads), low commission (15%), LTV/CAC <2:1
How CharliA Automates This Framework
You get it: doing this analysis manually takes 3-5 days of research (TAM/SAM/SOM, competitor analysis, LTV/CAC calculations...).
CharliA does it all in 180 seconds:
- ✅ Perplexity research for real-time market data
- ✅ Automatic /40 scoring with detailed justification
- ✅ 16-field competitive analysis (revenues, pricing, vulnerabilities...)
- ✅ TAM/SAM/SOM calculations with sources and methodology
- ✅ GTM recommendations channels + budget + timeline
Action Item: Score Your Idea Now
Take 15 minutes. Open a Google Doc. Score your idea on the 4 pillars.
If you score <35/40, challenge your idea. Pivot or drop it.
If you score 35+/40, GO. Build your MVP. Now.
PS: If you want CharliA to do this analysis for you in 3 minutes, try it free. 50 free credits, no credit card.
